Thursday, April 17, 2008


Senior Manipulation and his Girl Friend Full of Shit

I know! (MER) is scaring the shit out me too. I mean since when does a stock ever go up when the reports show that this is a loser, I mean a big loser. But to the great ability of my esteemed colleagues, I find it only appropriate to take a closer look at MER. Lets remove the hype and get down to the core.

Key Analytic Tools

There are a number of key analytic statistics that warrant looking at; the first would what I call the price bounce. Basically, this stock is hovering over its low and came screaming down from its high of 95. I tend to think there is a ton more to lose here and that it’s low should be around 28.50. Everyone knows though that the big boys will not let this happen. The P/E is what gets me, it is -3.8. Basically, it is not earning enough to pay back any of its loans, let alone stand in the market. SO, basically if the stock market would crash tomorrow, you would end up owing (technically) if you held onto this stock as there is no, I mean, no par value. Its beta is 1.53, which means it can take a path of its own, like today.

Key Fundamentals

Well, this is horseshit too. I mean look at it; P/E -3.8, Price/Sales 0.7, Price/Book 1.3. The kicker is price to cash flow, which is 0.0. Again, 0.0! They probably need to read the article, “How to get cash flow to really flow”. That is the beginner’s investment guide at Wharton. The RTO is -2.1 and climbing, the current book value is 34.1 and the institution selling is as close as institutional buying which we lead me to think the insiders are pumping and dumping, as you can see with the radical price variance.

Key Ratios (In the long term, not short term)

CVAD: Very Bearish

OBV: Very Bearish

Price Break: Very Bearish

(RSI): In between days

My Investor Hat:

Well if you bought the April 18th puts at a strike price of 45.00 or below you are fucked. Sorry, that is the way it is. The powers that be will not let you take a profit from their ignorant, misguided investment styles. May and June, that remains to be seen, but I feel a little more love in those months. As for the long term, are you fucking kidding me? There is no long term growth for sometime here as we cannot even get MER to give us what their real write-downs, write-offs, and total losses are. I am sorry bulls, but this stock is a huge pile of steamy cow dung.

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